Round-table discussionEU-Russia relations in 2009: Business as Unusual?Riga, 19 February 2009
2008 has been a turbulent year for EU-Russia relations (i). The Georgia crisis and later the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine made two things clear: first, that there is no alternative to continuing the relationship and, second, that it cannot continue in the same way. As the EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner observed, the EU's relationship with Russia ‘a challenging partnership, but one of the most important of our times (ii). While there is increasing doubt about the feasibility of the technocratic, business-as-usual approach, it is still not clear how the business as unusual approach between the EU and Russia should look like. The Czech Presidency of the EU has pledged to continue the dialogue with Russia through, among other means, the regular EU-Russia summit, sessions of the Permanent Partnership Council (PPC) as well as to continue negotiations on the new partnership and cooperation agreement with Russia. The aim of this paper is to introduce some of the questions that are likely to arise in this process: (a) the state and the outlook for the EU-Russia negotiation over a new treaty; (b) the EU's and Russia's mid-term and long-term strategies and interests vis-à-vis each other (c) possible need for a new security architecture in Europe after the 2008 Georgia crisis and the EU's possible role in it. The Treaty Negotiation The EU and Russia concluded a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement in 1994. The cooperation is based on four specific policy areas, or so called common spaces: economic issues and the environment; freedom, security and justice; external security; and research, education and including cultural aspects. Russia is today the EU's third biggest trade partner, while the EU is Russia's most important trade partner and investor. The June 2008 Summit between EU and the Russian Federation saw the launch of negotiations on a new EU-Russia agreement. The EU and Russia have made a number of commitments to human rights and democratic standards, notably in the Council of Europe and the OSCE, and respect for these standards will need to be reflected in the new agreement. The first round of negotiations took place in July 2008; following the Russia/Georgia conflict the EU postponed the second round pending withdrawal of Russian troops to positions held prior to August 7. Although the postponement was later lifted and the negotiation process has now resumed, questions remain. While some experts would like to see a revamped treaty that is based on strategic partnership in the four common spaces plus sectoral agreements in core areas, others doubt that a comprehensive agreement is achievable or even the best tool for managing the relationship. This suggests the following questions: Strategies and Interests: Co-operation or Bargains? In 2008, the doubts about the institutional framework for the future cooperation have been somewhat pushed to the background by the very real clashes on the ground. The military confrontation between Georgia and Russia, as well as the level of tension between Russia and Ukraine, have highlighted the fact that, despite almost two decades of cooperation, institution-building and declarations about strategic partnership, the EU and Russia see some very important things very differently. There are growing doubts whether strategic partnership is a realistic objective at the moment. Lowering the level of ambition, however, would also mean departing from the positive vision that gave impetus to the achievement. In the energy dimension of EU-Russia relations, the high level of interdependence has provoked calls for increased cooperation as well as fears of dependence on Russian energy resources. It seems that, while restructuring EU's energy policy to reduce reliance on individual non-EU suppliers is a mid-term and long-term goal, there is an urgent need for a working accommodation between the EU and Russia in the energy area. While Russia recently called for the immediate re-negotiation of the Energy Charter Treaty, it remains to be seen whether both sides are willing to reach an accommodation on energy and energy transit in the foreseeable future. Adding to the search for a new model in EU-Russia relations is the Union's own ‘one voice' challenge. As the Czech presidency stated, there is need for ‘identification of common ground for policy toward Russia and a subsequently more coherent EU approach. The key to EU-Russia relations is the maintenance of the unity of the entire EU and its ability to speak with one voice (iii). Russia, in its turn, seems to have a somewhat different view: its official foreign policy guidelines, while welcoming a unified approach on the part of the EU, see bilateral relations with some of the EU member states as an ‘important resource for promotion of Russia's national interests (iv). This leads to several questions: New European Security Architecture?
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